High-school sports present unique challenges for statistical modeling. Teams vary widely in roster experience, player availability, coaching style, and schedule strength. This makes it especially important to measure not only how teams rank, but how stable those rankings are.
Zow Ratings incorporates rating stability directly into its Confidence Stats system, offering a transparent view of how well the model understands each sport as the season progresses.
What Is Rating Stability?
Rating stability refers to how consistently a team’s rating behaves over time. A stable rating means new results reinforce the model’s expectations. An unstable rating suggests new games frequently contradict previous assumptions.
While both stable and unstable ratings provide useful information, the reliability of predictions depends heavily on stability.
Why Stability Is Important
1. More Accurate Predictions
Stable ratings support better game predictions because they are grounded in patterns that repeat over time.
2. Identifying Outliers
When ratings are unstable, surprising results have more significance. When ratings are stable, surprises tend to be just that—rare.
3. Context Behind the Rankings
Stability adds depth to rankings. Two teams may have similar ratings, but the one with higher stability is likely easier to compare and predict accurately.
How Zow Ratings Measures Stability
The daily Confidence Score blends:
- Recent prediction accuracy
- Day-to-day rating movement
- Margin-of-victory alignment
- Sample size effects
This blended, adaptive approach allows the model to adjust quickly when necessary while still rewarding stability when the season settles.